Compare the teams' outright winning chances, recent form and value in the match-winner market.
Penrith deserve favouritism in Round 25, but Melbourne's recent attacking lift, cleaner tackling and extra rest keep the outsider firmly in the betting conversation.
See how the handicap changes the matchup and whether either side offers cover value.
Penrith remain favourites against Melbourne, but the 7.5 point handicap still asks the Panthers to create clear separation from a Storm side with reasons to stay close.
Melbourne have allowed 6.4 opponent line breaks a game across their latest five compared with Penrith's 5.2, highlighting a vulnerability in the Storm defence.