Warriors vs Knights Total Tips

Introduction

The Warriors host the Knights in Round 26 with the total set at 47.5 points. Across their past five matches the Warriors have averaged 32.2 points and Newcastle 28.4, giving them a combined attacking output of 60.6. The defensive picture drags that figure back, with the Warriors conceding only 13.6 per game and the Knights 24.6. Those headline numbers put 47.5 within a believable range, although the Warriors' attacking surge makes the upper side of the market impossible to dismiss.

The Warriors have scored 45, 40 and 28 in their three most recent matches, while Newcastle have reached at least 24 points in four straight. The counterweight is a Warriors defence that has held four of its past five opponents to 18 points or fewer. With changes to the Warriors' attacking personnel and a major Newcastle finisher missing, the finer details around possession, yardage and chance creation become important to whether this game clears the current number.

Points scored and conceded

Recent points scored and conceded show how each team's match totals compare with the market.

The market total is 47.5 points. The best Over price at that total is $1.90 with PointsBet, while the best Under price is $1.95 with BetR.

Scoring and Defensive Trends

The Warriors have produced their recent numbers through a mixed run that included the Panthers and Broncos, while Newcastle have also met quality opposition including the Roosters, Broncos and Raiders. That makes the attacking output difficult to wave away as soft scheduling. The Warriors have also controlled the ball more reliably, completing at 82.2% across their past five matches compared with Newcastle's 79.2%. Their completion has improved lately too, giving them a strong foundation for repeated attacking sets.

Completion rate

The Warriors have completed more reliably across their past five matches and have improved further in recent weeks, supporting sustained attacking pressure.

The clearest separation comes through the middle. The Warriors have averaged 594.6 post contact metres across their past five matches compared with Newcastle's 499.2, with the league average at 544.5. The Warriors have also averaged 1820.6 total run metres and have restricted opponents to 1469.4. Newcastle have created 7.8 line breaks per game across their past five, but Dominic Young is out this week after accounting for a substantial share of that production. That weakens one of Newcastle's strongest recent routes to points while the Warriors retain the stronger territorial platform.

Post contact metres

The Warriors have generated substantially more metres after contact across their past five matches, giving them the stronger platform for attacking sets.

Key Players

Mitchell Barnett remains central to the Warriors' ability to turn possession into field position, averaging 165.6 run metres across his past five matches along with 68.8 post contact metres. His recent run output has held firm, which matters for a side averaging 32.2 points across the same five game stretch. Luke Hanson comes into the Warriors side after running for 17 metres in his most recent match, replacing some of the attacking personnel that had featured in the previous selection.

Mitchell Barnett — Run metres

Barnett's carries help the Warriors establish field position and sustain attacking pressure. The league average is based on players in the same position and is calculated using recent performance data across the competition.

Kalyn Ponga remains Newcastle's primary attacking creator, averaging 1.4 line break assists and 0.8 try assists across his past five matches. His running has lifted lately, with 164.7 metres per game across his most recent three compared with a five match average of 150.2. Newcastle will need plenty from him because Dominic Young is out this week. Over the past three seasons, Knights have only won 43.6% of their games without him.

Kalyn Ponga — Line break assists

Ponga's ability to create line breaks gives Newcastle a route to points against a Warriors defence that has conceded few points recently. The league average is based on players in the same position and is calculated using recent performance data across the competition.

Prediction And Value Bet

The Warriors have the stronger platform through completion, yardage and post contact work, and their recent scoring suggests they can carry a large share of the total themselves. Newcastle still possess enough creation through Ponga to contribute, although Young's absence removes an important finishing threat and the Warriors have been exceptionally difficult to score against over the past five matches.

We expect about 51 combined points and rate 50.5 as a fair total. Against a market total of 47.5, the number looks slightly too low. Newcastle's personnel changes temper the case for a shootout, but the Warriors' attacking form and territorial control still leave enough room above the market. Recommendation Over 47.5 points.